Today’s structure of power systems with competitive wholesale markets for electricity encourages the introduction of new agents and products, customers with self-generating capacity and the specialization of generators, network operators and power suppliers.
Furthermore one has to take into account the variation of the fossil fuel prices in the world market, which even anticipates the closeness of its scarcity, the instability of the fulfilment of contracts, and the existence of import restrictions. In addition the implementation of policies aiming to control CO2 emissions, and efficient use of energy plus the advent of more efficient technologies have to be incorporated in new network expansion projects. These are forcing utilities and society to seek new forms of electric system expansion without affecting their economic growth. This expresses a challenge to sustain such a growth changing the vision for the power system and the required security of electricity supply, usually based on internal factors of the electric sector, without considering the connection between the current transmission and distribution networks, the uncertainties related to the competition in the electricity market and the effect of distributed generation units.
The high penetration of distributed generation resources, based on renewable energy sources, is increasingly observed worldwide and it depends on the cost of the technologies, market design, and subsidies. On that account, it is necessary to find alternatives and offers to develop a sustainable strategic plan for power system expansion. Currently, efforts are oriented to develop planning models which consider the income of power generation based on renewable energy sources founded on these new requirements, bearing in mind the relationship between the competitive markets and the power system planning.
In this Thesis a general planning method for the expansion of the power grids is proposed. This planning method should guide the expansion of the electrical system and coordinate solutions in order to obtain the maximal benefit for each new installation. The proposed method considers a temporary and spatial load forecasting model, the optimal distribution of the load into the grid, the proposal of new power generation projects and its branches, the planning of transmission and distribution systems and the classification of these proposed projects. The solution suggests a reduction of the active power losses due to the distribution of the load, the locations of new agents into the grid, and the interaction between transmission and the distribution system based on different tariff schemes. The usefulness of this method is highlighted by considering the influence of current variables which affect the behaviour of the load and the expansion of the power systems.
The proposed method includes classical methodologies combined with exploratory development of other mathematical tools in the area of identification systems, the use of genetic algorithm, and the application of a branch & bound method, in the optimization methodology.
The model is applied to a real system and shows the potential for its use in an analysis of the entry of new consumption devices, such as electric vehicles. The direct effect on each of the variables included in the analysis is distinguished mainly through the introduction of new components like energy efficiency in the load forecasting model, the effect of tariff scheme in the planning model, and the classification of projects in transmission and distribution systems.

Schlagwörter: power system planning area; renewable energy; load forecasting; electricity market

Berichte aus der Energietechnik