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François Paul Jost
Modeling agricultural and forestry production systems in the Andes
Identifying livelihood strategies for risk reduction through the optimization of resource allocation
The heterogeneity present in the Andes, with a wide variety of microclimates, agro-ecological zones and vegetation, makes farmers very susceptible to climate variations. Highly dependent on their agricultural production, Andean communities have thus to struggle to reinforce and develop traditional and new practices to reduce risks and vulnerability. In this regard, the assessment of the different adaptation options or decision alternatives is considered as fundamental in order to identify livelihood strategies for risk reduction in small-scale Andean farming systems. Supporting farm household systems’ efficient allocation of resources as well as farmers’ financial capital can help overcome these losses, as an essential step towards adaptation.
The efficiency of resource allocation in farm household systems was maximized in the present study by developing a linear programming optimization model. Accurate and positive outcomes from the model were obtained for all but the resource-scarcer farmers, underpinning their need for additional off-farm activities.
With low interest rates (below 15%), trees - in different arrangements except for silvopastoral systems - were always included in the optimal solutions for all farm household systems. Therefore, under these scenarios, the incorporation of trees in the farm improves farmer’s livelihood. However, increasing climate risks and unstable markets increase small-scale farmers’ rates of time preference, making long-term investments like tree-based production systems less interesting for their farms.
Surprisingly, and in spite of its inherently less climate-sensitive nature, the share of land for forestry systems did not increase correspondingly after intensifying the potential negative consequences of extreme events for pasture and crop-related productivity in the optimization model. In these conditions, as well as with increasing interest rates, a higher share of land is used to cover household’s basic needs and fewer resources are available for capital accumulation activities such as forestry. This evidences that the incorporation of trees in the farms as an adaptation strategy is limited to specific conditions, often restricted to households with a higher own financial capital.
Overall, farmers were less sensitive to changes in tree prices and agricultural wages. This provides additional evidence for decision makers and support farmers willing to venture in tree plantations but unconfident of the possible changes in the long-term conditions. Characteristics such as farmers’ low rates of time preference, greater own financial capital and larger size of landholdings, respectively, will lead to a higher share of land allocated for tree-related activities as part of the farmers’ optimal solutions. These characteristics make Andean farmers less sensitive and climate dependent and thus more financially resilient to increasing climate variability and extreme events.
The efficiency of resource allocation in farm household systems was maximized in the present study by developing a linear programming optimization model. Accurate and positive outcomes from the model were obtained for all but the resource-scarcer farmers, underpinning their need for additional off-farm activities.
With low interest rates (below 15%), trees - in different arrangements except for silvopastoral systems - were always included in the optimal solutions for all farm household systems. Therefore, under these scenarios, the incorporation of trees in the farm improves farmer’s livelihood. However, increasing climate risks and unstable markets increase small-scale farmers’ rates of time preference, making long-term investments like tree-based production systems less interesting for their farms.
Surprisingly, and in spite of its inherently less climate-sensitive nature, the share of land for forestry systems did not increase correspondingly after intensifying the potential negative consequences of extreme events for pasture and crop-related productivity in the optimization model. In these conditions, as well as with increasing interest rates, a higher share of land is used to cover household’s basic needs and fewer resources are available for capital accumulation activities such as forestry. This evidences that the incorporation of trees in the farms as an adaptation strategy is limited to specific conditions, often restricted to households with a higher own financial capital.
Overall, farmers were less sensitive to changes in tree prices and agricultural wages. This provides additional evidence for decision makers and support farmers willing to venture in tree plantations but unconfident of the possible changes in the long-term conditions. Characteristics such as farmers’ low rates of time preference, greater own financial capital and larger size of landholdings, respectively, will lead to a higher share of land allocated for tree-related activities as part of the farmers’ optimal solutions. These characteristics make Andean farmers less sensitive and climate dependent and thus more financially resilient to increasing climate variability and extreme events.
Schlagwörter: Vulnerability; Andes; Peru; Agroforestry; Livelihood strategies; Resilience; Small-scale farmers; Risk; Optimization; Field laboratories; Capacity of response; Livelihood Vulnerability Index; Climate change; Adaptation
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